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Despite or perhaps because of the potential damage to financial firms, the politics of a war on Wall Street must have been irresistable.
Who likes bankers anyway? What better way to pump up sagging poll numbers than to pick a fight with them? The President all but said as much, stating: So if these folks want a fight, its a fight Im ready to have.
The dangers of the regulations, and perhaps more the virulence of the populist rhetoric, sent the markets into a tailspin yesterday, with the Dow losing points yesterday and another today.
Its unclear exactly what effect the drop will have on White House strategists, however. The goal, after all, was a war on Wall Street, so couldnt have been surprised that Wall Street recoiled.
And on the Left the new hard line against the capitalists was greeted with applause. France also congratulated Mr.
Obama, saying they were glad to see him following their lead, although it wasnt clear how welcome that embrace was. But will the average American side with the President?
Certainly, theres lingering resentment against banks in the wake of the TARP fiasco. And reports of big bonuses this year certainly wont win banks any popularity constests.
But theres reason to believe Americans wont be led so easily. Bankers as a whole certainly arent loved, but polls show politicians coming in even lower.
And outrage over bonuses and other abuses is concentrated on those using taxpayer money. Second, the ultimate judgment on Obamas policy will be the results.
And, however populist, a policy that hurts the economy, and reduces jobs, wont win brownie points. Lastly, despite the Presidents assertion that his plan would assure that [n[ever again will the American taxpayer be held hostage by a bank that is too big to fail, Americans will likely take that as they should with more than a few tablespoons of salt.
Not only are the new reforms unlikely to ward off future bailouts, but the other financial reforms now pending in Congress would actually make them more likely.
The Administrations bank war is a fairly transparent attempt to score political points at the expense of good policy. The good news is that Americans should see through it.
According to a Reuters report , French economy minister Christine Lagarde today applauded President Obamas call for more regulation of the U.
I am delighted that [the] president of the United States is following our lead, she added. In a possibly related story, the Dow Jones yesterday dropped by points , the largest one day drop since last October.
We want our money back, and were going to get it, the President said. The President is half right. Taxpayers are going to get their money back from the banks that received bailout money but dont expect to see any of the money the Obama administration poured into General Motors and Chrysler at the behest of their union allies.
That is where the real losses are coming from. Except for AIG, almost all banks that received taxpayer money are expected to pay back the American taxpayers in full.
As The New York Times reports: The losses from the bailout fund are expected from money paid to rescue Chrysler and General Motors and the insurance giant American International Group, and from a program to help homeowners avert foreclosures.
So the real deadbeats that are not giving us our money back are not the banks, but the union-backed car companies and failed government mortgage modification programs.
The White House has chosen not to include the car companies among the institutions that will pay this so called Financial Crisis Responsibility Fee.
Also exempted are Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac , the government-sponsored entities that helped create the crisis.
The plan also will do nothing to help reform the banking system. The new big-bank tax is just like charging a nickel sin tax on a half-gallon of cheap liquor it may make moralists feel good, but it doesnt do much to stop bad behavior.
Instead of protecting consumers, it will just end up hurting them. The irony is it hurts the weaker banks more than the stronger banks.
To think that it wont come out of consumers and businesses is mistaken. And banking analyst David Hendler tells Bloomberg: We remain concerned that this is more evidence of the cynical view of the banking industry which prevails in Washington.
If the President were serious about making taxpayers whole and restoring confidence in the banking sector, then he should end TARP now.
Given this, the plan floated yesterday by the Obama Administration to charge a fee read tax on financial institutions to cover losses under the TARP program is understandable.
That doesnt make it sensible. That money is likely lost. It will, however, force firms that didnt take bailout money and those that took money but have already paid it back with interest, to subsidize the money losers.
Worse, it promises to do so in a way that is going to make the financial system less sound, and possibly even make it harder for ordinary Americans to save for retirement.
As reported so far, theres no word on exactly what form the fee would take, but several potential methods have been mentioned, each worse than the next one.
It could be a surtax on top of existing business taxes, to be paid by firms over a certain size. But this would hit the healthiest firms those least likely to impose bailout costs.
Of course, the mere existence of such a surtax will immediately reduce the stock price of financials that still need to raise capital levels, and are vulnerable to further losses on commercial real estate, consumer products, etc.
Under an excise tax, assessed on assets, payroll, or perhaps average pay of top executives, firms would be taxed more equally.
But that means problem institutions will be further weakened and be even more vulnerable to failing. Moreover, excise taxes no doubt will be used to penalize politically unpopular expenses regardless of justification increasing government micromanagement.
Surcharge on financial transactions: A third proposal would be to charge a 0. Unfortunately, this idea would mainly hit the k type retirement savings accounts of ordinary Americans, for a very high proportion of stock transactions are connected with the management of these accounts.
The tax, small as it seems, will be added to the costs paid by these plans, thus further reducing the money that future retirees will have to live on.
This is completely the wrong approach to reducing the swollen deficit, and will inevitably cause more problems than it solves. It is a bad idea being used to score political points, and should be dropped.
Interpreting statements of Federal Reserve Chairmen has long been considered a high art form. During Alan Greenspans time, journalists and financial analysts made huge efforts to understand his cryptic comments on the economy, with the result that a few sentences could spawn literally pages of analysis designed to explain the possible contents of Greenspans comments.
Most of that analysis was incorrect. Now, journalists and especially headline writers are attempting to apply the same techniques to Ben Bernankes comments.
The most widely quoted sentence contained in a scholarly paper he delivered on January 3 before the American Economic Association AEA was: Bank asset or flexibility the not for be established.
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